A Digital Twin is a dynamic, virtual representation of a system
Examples of Digital Twins in medicine are: a twin of an Individual, a twin of a Biological Entity, Organ, Tumor, etc; a twin of a Healthcare System, or a twin of a Clinical Trial. In addition, Digital Twins are also useful in Education, Finance, Smart Cities etc.
In this video, Mihaela van der Schaar explains what Digital Twins are, why they are useful and when, and how they differ from Causality and Synthetic Data:
Below, you can find our most recent work:
Automatically Learning Hybrid Digital Twins of Dynamical Systems
S Holt, T Liu, M van der Schaar
NeurIPS 2024 Spotlight
Abstract
Digital Twins (DTs) are computational models that simulate the states and temporal dynamics of real-world systems, playing a crucial role in prediction, understanding, and decision-making across diverse domains. However, existing approaches to DTs often struggle to generalize to unseen conditions in data-scarce settings, a crucial requirement for such models.
To address these limitations, our work begins by establishing the essential desiderata for effective DTs. Hybrid Digital Twins (HDTwins) represent a promising approach to address these requirements, modeling systems using a composition of both mechanistic and neural components. This hybrid architecture simultaneously leverages (partial) domain knowledge and neural network expressiveness to enhance generalization, with its modular design facilitating improved evolvability. While existing hybrid models rely on expert-specified architectures with only parameters optimized on data, automatically specifying and optimizing HDTwins remains intractable due to the complex search space and the need for flexible integration of domain priors.
To overcome this complexity, we propose an evolutionary algorithm (HDTwinGen) that employs Large Language Models (LLMs) to autonomously propose, evaluate, and optimize HDTwins. Specifically, LLMs iteratively generate novel model specifications, while offline tools are employed to optimize emitted parameters. Correspondingly, proposed models are evaluated and evolved based on targeted feedback, enabling the discovery of increasingly effective hybrid models. Our empirical results reveal that HDTwinGen produces generalizable, sample-efficient, and evolvable models, significantly advancing DTs’ efficacy in real-world applications.
SyncTwin: Treatment Effect Estimation with Longitudinal Outcomes
Z Qian, Y Zhang, I Bica, A Wood, M van der Schaar
NeurIPS 2021
Abstract
Most of the medical observational studies estimate the causal treatment effects using electronic health records (EHR), where a patient’s covariates and outcomes are both observed longitudinally. However, previous methods focus only on adjusting for the covariates while neglecting the temporal structure in the outcomes.
To bridge the gap, this paper develops a new method, SyncTwin, that learns a patient-specific time-constant representation from the pre-treatment observations. SyncTwin issues counterfactual prediction of a target patient by constructing a synthetic twin that closely matches the target in representation. The reliability of the estimated treatment effect can be assessed by comparing the observed and synthetic pre-treatment outcomes. The medical experts can interpret the estimate by examining the most important contributing individuals to the synthetic twin.
In the real-data experiment, SyncTwin successfully reproduced the findings of a randomized controlled clinical trial using observational data, which demonstrates its usability in the complex real-world EHR.
We have recently dedicated two Engagement Sessions to Digital Twins, watch for the technical exploration of Digital Twins (Inspiration Exchange) and their potential for healthcare settings (Revolutionizing Healthcare):













