van der Schaar Lab at ICLR 2020: two papers and a keynote

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a novel sequence-to sequence model that leverages the increasingly available patient observational data to estimate treatment effects over time and answer such medical questions.

To handle the bias from time-varying confounders, covariates affecting the treatment assignment policy in the observational data, CRN uses domain adversarial training to build balancing representations of the patient history. At each timestep, CRN constructs a treatment invariant representation which removes the association between patient history and treatment assignments and thus can be reliably used for making counterfactual predictions.

On a simulated model of tumour growth, with varying degree of time-dependent confounding, we show how our model achieves lower error in estimating counterfactuals and in choosing the correct treatment and timing of treatment than current state-of-the-art methods.

Autoencoder-based learning has emerged as a staple for disciplining representations in unsupervised and semi-supervised settings.

This paper analyzes a framework for improving generalization in a purely supervised setting, where the target space is high-dimensional. We motivate and formalize the general framework of target embedding autoencoders (TEA) for supervised prediction, learning intermediate latent representations jointly optimized to be both predictable from features as well as predictive of targets—encoding the prior that variations in targets are driven by a compact set of underlying factors.

As our theoretical contribution, we provide a guarantee of generalization for linear TEAs by demonstrating uniform stability, interpreting the benefit of the auxiliary reconstruction task as a form of regularization. As our empirical contribution, we extend validation of this approach beyond existing static classification applications to multivariate sequence forecasting, verifying their advantage on both linear and nonlinear recurrent architectures—thereby underscoring the further generality of this framework beyond feedforward instantiations.